Europe Under Water

It seems churlish to disparage the deal cut in Paris at COP21 even if one feels that it doesn't go far enough, that governments can't be trusted to meet targets they've agreed, that too much faith is being put in Geo-engineering, carbon sequestration and nuclear power, that... there's plenty of critique out there. It's fair to sat that it's much better than it could have been, which is not to say that it's enough.

Here's James Hansen et al from the controversial paper 'Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming is highly dangerous' in  the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
 [Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, 20059-20179, 2015
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/
doi:10.5194/acpd-15-20059-2015]:


'Humanity faces near certainty of eventual sea level rise of at least Eemian proportions, 5–9 m, if fossil fuel emissions continue on a business-as-usual course, e.g., IPCC scenario A1B that has CO2 700 ppm in 2100 (Fig. S21). It is unlikely that coastal cities or low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, European lowlands, and large portions of the United States eastern coast and northeast China plains (Fig. S22) could be protected against such large sea level rise.

Rapid large sea level rise may begin sooner than generally assumed. Amplifying feedbacks, including slowdown of SMOC and cooling of the near-Antarctic ocean surface with increasing sea ice, may spur nonlinear growth of Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Deep submarine valleys in West Antarctica and the Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica, each with access to ice amounting to several meters of sea level, provide gateways to the ocean. If the Southern Ocean forcing (subsurface warming) of the Antarctic ice sheets  continues  to  grow,  it  likely  will  become  impossible  to  avoid  sea  level  rise  of several meters, with the largest uncertainty being how rapidly it will occur.'

Increasing Edge via Realignment

A useful illustration from the Dutch Deltaproof website in their section explaining managed retreat/realignment.

'Intertidal habitats and natural coastlines provide an important buffering function for flood protection. Habitats absorb and attenuate wave energy and in turn provide protection against flooding and prevent erosion, also during storm events. In addition, the intertidal areas move landward to a proportionately higher elevation as sea levels rise. Man-made flood defences form an obstacle for these natural processes to occur. These were constructed decades ago to prevent the flooding of low lying coastal and estuarine areas. While these constructions enabled the land to be developed or used for agriculture, hydro-morphological processes and functions of a water body were constrained. A fixed line of flood defence leads to narrowing of the intertidal area - a phenomenon known as coastal squeeze.'

Particularly Vulnerable

The BBC reports on 5 ways climate change could effect the UK, Way 3 is 'Rising Sea Levels':

'The UK Climate Projections of 2009 estimated a sea-level rise of between 13cm and 76cm for the UK by 2095.

The report also suggested the number of "extreme high sea-level events" - caused by storm swells - on the south coast of England could become between 10 and 1,800 times more common by 2100, depending on different scenarios involving emissions. The government acknowledges there's "lively scientific debate" over the issue.

Sea levels don't rise uniformly, says [Joanna] Haigh [co-director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London], and are "hard to predict".

Areas that have been identified as particularly vulnerable to coastal flood risk include South Wales, north-west Scotland, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the Thames estuary.'

Louisiana coastline disappearing

A new Al Jazeera mini-documentary on how sea-level change and wild weather threatens an American state and the underfunded  Coastal Master Plan - a  plan to protect against land loss by restoring the wetlands. Watch it here: The Disappearing Lousiana Coastline .

The video also features members of Gulf South Rising, a 'regional movement of coordinated actions and events to highlight the impact of the global climate crisis on the Gulf South region (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida). Through collaborative events and actions around strategic dates in 2015, GSR demands a just transition away from extractive industries, discriminatory policies and unjust practices that hinder equitable recovery from disaster and impede the development of sustainable communities. This year-long initiative 1) builds regional movement infrastructure; 2) connects and convenes frontline communities around ecological equity and collective healing; 3) advances regional efforts of indigenous tribal and land sovereignty; and 4) shifts the regional narrative from resilience to resistance.'

Delegates from Gulf South Rising are currently attending the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference Of Partiesin Paris.

Brighter Later

The sea photographed from Essex - one of the images in Brian David Stevens' collection Brighter Later a series of photographs looking out to sea from every coastal county in Britain.


'Looking out to sea you truly are looking into the future, seeing the weather and the waves that will at some point arrive at the shores of this island, you predict their inevitable, unstoppable approach. You look out rather than look in.'


The book of photographs is available from tartaruga

Impermanence rules the sandy marge

from John R. Stilgoe's What is Landscape?

Shifting Shores

The National Trust has just issued a new report on coastal erosions: Shifting Shores. It marks the increasing move towards adaptation strategies as it becomes clear that action to stop climate change is happening too slow and too late. The authors write:

'In our new report  'shifting shores – playing our part at the coast', we are calling for a bold and imaginative approach to coastline management, involving an understanding of how nature works, moving towards adaptation and away from maintaining engineered defences, where appropriate, while being sensitive to community needs.' 

I particularly enjoyed the glossary at the back, with these gems:

Managed re-alignment – allows an area that is not currently exposed to flooding by the sea to become flooded by removing frontline coastal protection. Note – can also occur as a consequence of ‘force majuere’ i.e. unmanaged re-alignment. [My emphasis]

Uncertainty – a situation where the current state of knowledge is such that the order or nature of things is not fully understood and thus absolute outcomes cannot be defined or guaranteed.

Lights on Bradwell!

John Betjeman on Southend pier Feburary 1980

'I attended one day of the inquiry held last week by the Ministry of Fuel and Power at Maldon, in Essex, about the atomic power station the Central Electricity Board has decided to erect on the Blackwater Estuary at Bradwell. It seems odd that the Minister should be the judge of the activities of one of his own departments, and that Ministries like Agriculture and Fisheries and Housing and Local Government should not be the judges. At this inquiry I should have thought either of them would have been entitled to that position. But that is something to do with law and I realise my ignorance of it when I attend an inquiry like this. The skill of the lawyers is amazing, particularly the way they lead a witness into a trap and pounce. The Central Electricity Board, of course, has its professional witnesses, but for us members of the public the ordeal is terrifying.

You must imagine the crowded hall beside the Congregational Church in Maldon, the amiable inspector and his two assistants on the platform. Below him on his right, the men from the Central Electricity Board; there seemed to be about twenty-five of them in dark, neat suits, hard collars and horn-rimmed spectacles, with files and papers (first-class fares and time paid). They reminded me of men from 1984, or the novel by C. S. Lewis, That Hideous Strength. On the other side were we, the mad-eyed preservationists, the shrewd farmers and representatives of the fishing and oyster interests, all giving up time and money voluntarily to save the Dengie Peninsula. I hope this does not sound smug, but it is the truth, and it is worth noting that counsel appearing on behalf of objectors to Government schemes generally do so free or for very low fees. Between us sat the Essex country people, some thinking the atomic station would bring them riches, others wanting to continue the way of life their fathers lived before them.'

- John Betjeman c.1958

THE NEXT EDITION OF MANAGED RETREAT WILL BE....

LIGHTS ON BRADWELL!

Maplin Sands Airport

Model of the proposed Maplin Sands Airport development on show to the press in the 1970s.

An article in The Guardian, 'King's Cross airport? The outlandish plans for London that almost got built' includes this photograph of a model of the once proposed Maplin Sands airport development, planned for the island of Foulness and the tidal sandbanks in the Essex Archipelago.

Read more about that with some fascinating (but frustratingly small) illustrations here.

Friends of the Earth joined protests against the airport with their Maplin Manifesto.

This sinking isle

The Guardian looks at some of those who refuse to accept the inward march of the sea and remain in precarious coastal properties: 'This sinking isle: the homeowners battling coastal erosion'.

'For fear of looking weak, few politicians dare admit the limitations of coastal defences in a century of rising seas. After the winter storms of 2013, Neil Parish, a Tory backbencher, cried out in parliament: “We have got to force the sea back and keep it out, not retreat from it like we have been for years.” This is natural territory for Ukip, whose heartlands – and winnable seats in the 2015 election – lie along England’s vulnerable east coast. Michael Baker, Ukip’s candidate for North Norfolk at the general election, insists: “Defence is the first duty of government. It is not only necessary to protect our country from invading human forces, but also from invasion by the sea and rivers.” '

Catastrophic Sea Level Rise

'The year is now 2015 and the human population is still shooting skyward as if there is some sort of bright techno-utopian future on the horizon, the high priests of capitalism are still praising endless growth, fossil fuels are still the predominant energy source on the planet, and the masses still can’t get enough of celebrity gossip. No need to worry about the future. I’m sure if there’s a buck to be made by holding back the rising tides, we can count on some capitalist lurking in the shadows to fix the problem. Sea walls will do the trick, right? Humans are looking more and more like ants on a floating turd: “When the log turns over we will all be dead…” '

from the Collapse of Industrial Civilization blog 'Catastrophic Sea Level Rise within Three Generations' 7th April 2015.

Tillingham Marshes

The marginal lands of Essex: Doctor Who on Tillingham Marshes in 'Carnival of Monsters'.

London Bay

The Seattle mapmaker and urban planner Jeffrey Linn creates maps of the future, redrawing coastlines based on the raised sea levels that melting ice sheets would produce. Above is his depiction of London if 2/3rds of the ice sheets melted.

Below is Great Britain at various depths. Similar to the Greenhouse Britain work of Harrison& Harrison.

Linn's beautiful maps depict locations all over the world and are available to buy as posters .

Fire & Water

Add caption

Illustration by Rob Pybus for a New York Times editorial:

'For this piece I had to depict the struggle going on in NY the moment concerning sea defenses on Fire Island. For the most part its seen as a waste of money and a danger to the environment.'

London flood risk: Map shows areas of the capital most in danger

Independent article on London's floor risk areas:

'More than 300,000 homes in London are at risk of flooding from the Thames and the capital’s numerous other rivers, according to a new report.
  
Groundsure, an environmental risk consultancy, used Environment Agency and census data to calculate the places most in danger of damage.

Hammersmith and Fulham was found to be the worst borough for potential flooding, with almost 60,000 homes – 60 per cent of the borough - at risk.'

Florida is sinking

Rising, Rising

New York City Panel on Climate Change has released a new report detailing how climate scientists expect New York City to change over over the next 100 years, focusing on projected increases in temperature and sea level [Via Wired]

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

'The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant year-to-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. The analysis of long-term tide gauge records identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009–10. Within this 2-year period, the coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by 128 mm. This magnitude of interannual SLR is unprecedented (a 1-in-850 year event) during the entire history of the tide gauge records. Here we show that this extreme SLR event is a combined effect of two factors: an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during 2009–10, and a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation index. The extreme nature of the 2009–10 SLR event suggests that such a significant downturn of the Atlantic overturning circulation is very unusual. During the twenty-first century, climate models project an increase in magnitude and frequency of extreme interannual SLR events along this densely populated coast.'

 'An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010' by Paul B. Goddard, Jianjun Yin, Stephen M. Griffies & Shaoqing Zhang in Nature Communications, 6

[Coverage of the article on the BBC and on Phys.org]

Bradwell Juxta Mare

Troubled Coastlines - From Louisiana To Maine

A great two-parter podcast from Sea Change Radio featuring interviews with  journalist Bob Marshall and former Maine State Representative Seth Berry (Part 1, Part 2).

In Part 1 there's also a link to Losing Ground by Bob Marshall, a fascinating interactive article on Louisiana’s imperiled shores.

Sea Level Change Adaptation Strategy

ht to Ran Prieur for the link to this curious 'Sea Level Change Adaptation Strategy' by David of the blog Plants and Architecture.

On the basis that forecast sea level rise due to climate change will drown his home US State of Florida he proposes - now - building mounds planted with food forests to create an archipelago network of islands for future generations to enjoy.

Rising Sea Levels

We don’t have to look 85 years into the future to see what a sinking world looks like: 'Rising Sea Levels Are Already Making Miami's Floods Worse' in Wired magazine.

'Based on what scientists can glean from sea level data from the past 20,000 years, [University of Miami's Department of Atmospheric Sciences researcher Brian] McNoldy estimates that the world could still have up to 100 feet of sea level rise to go. He believes even if humans were to slow down or stop the man-made factors contributing to climate change, "we're already pretty well committed to significant sea level rise. We would be more prudent to consider how to adapt to those conditions.'

Beyond the Thames Barrier

The Guardian on 'Beyond the Thames Barrier: how safe is London from another major flood?'.

'The planners have put mitigating the effects of climate change at centre stage. They expect it to produce raised average sea levels, surge tide levels and wave heights in the coming decades, albeit by less than previously thought. Meanwhile, land levels in the south-east of England are falling – only by about 1.5mm a year, but over the course of a century it all adds up. In addition, development along the river’s banks is slowly invading its space, leaving less room within which its waters can expand.'

New York Retreats from the water's edge